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2015 United States gubernatorial elections

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2015 United States gubernatorial elections
← 2014 November 3, 2015
November 21 (Louisiana runoff)		 2016 →
3 governorships[a]
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Seats before 31 18
Seats after 31 18
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 1,494,011 1,305,187
Percentage 52.52% 45.88%
Seats up 2 1
Seats won 2 1
2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election
Map of the results
     Democratic gain      Republican gain
     Republican hold
     No election

United States gubernatorial elections were held in three states in 2015 as part of the 2015 United States elections. In Kentucky and Mississippi, the elections were held on November 3, and in Louisiana, as no candidate received a majority of votes at the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2011. Democrats picked up the open seat of term-limited Republican Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, while Republicans re-elected incumbent Phil Bryant in Mississippi and picked up the seat of term-limited Democrat Steve Beshear in Kentucky.

As of 2024, this is the last time that Republicans won the governorship in Kentucky. This is the last time there was no net change in the number of governorships held by either party.

Election predictions

[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State PVI Incumbent[1] Last
race 		Cook
Aug 25,
2016[2] 		IE
Aug 21,
2015[3] 		Sabato
Oct 29,
2015[4] 		DKE
Oct 29,
2015[5] 		Result
Kentucky R+13 Steve Beshear (term-limited) 55.7% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Bevin
52.5% R (flip)
Louisiana R+12 Bobby Jindal (term-limited) 65.8% R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Edwards
56.1% D (flip)
Mississippi R+9 Phil Bryant 61.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Bryant
66.2% R

Race summary

[edit]
State Incumbent Results
State Governor Party First
elected 		Status Candidates
Kentucky Steve Beshear Democratic 2007 Incumbent term-limited.
New governor elected.
Republican gain.
Louisiana Bobby Jindal Republican 2007 Incumbent term-limited.
New governor elected.
Democratic gain.
Mississippi Phil Bryant Republican 2011 Incumbent re-elected.[6]
  • ▌Green tickY Phil Bryant (Republican) 66.4%
  • ▌Robert Gray (Democratic) 32.4%
  • ▌Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 1.4%

Closest races

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States where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. Kentucky, 8.70%

Red denotes states won by Republicans.

Kentucky

[edit]
2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2011 November 3, 2015 (2015-11-03) 2019 →
 
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote 511,374 426,620
Percentage 52.5% 43.8%
County results
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Conway:      40–50%      50–60%
Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

Main article: 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

Two-term incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, was unable to run for a third term in 2015 due to term limits established under the Kentucky Constitution. To succeed Beshear, Democrats nominated Attorney General of Kentucky Jack Conway. Conway's running mate was State Representative Sannie Overly.[7] For the Republicans, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Matt Bevin ran on a ticket with Tea Party activist and 2014 State House candidate Jenean Hampton.[8] Bevin narrowly defeated Agriculture Commissioner James Comer to win the Republican nomination. Drew Curtis, the founder of Fark, ran as an independent, polling well enough to appear in the Bluegrass Poll gubernatorial debate.[9] Bevin ultimately defeated Conway, winning 53% of the vote to Conway's 44%.

Kentucky Democratic primary[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.78
Democratic Geoff Young 37,887 21.22
Total votes 178,514 100.00
Kentucky Republican primary[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91
Republican James Comer 70,397 32.89
Republican Hal Heiner 57,951 27.10
Republican Will T. Scott 15,365 7.20
Total votes 214,187 100.00
Kentucky general election[11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52 Increase17.23
Democratic Jack Conway 426,620 43.82 Decrease11.90
Independent Drew Curtis 35,597 3.66 Decrease5.33
Total votes 973,692 100.00
Republican gain from Democratic

Louisiana

[edit]
2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
← 2011 November 21, 2015 (2015-11-21) 2019 →
 
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 646,924 505,940
Percentage 56.1% 43.9%
Parish results
Edwards:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Vitter:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Main article: 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
See also: 2015 Louisiana lieutenant gubernatorial election

Two-term incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was term-limited in 2015 and thus unable to seek reelection. Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The primary was held on October 24, 2015, with Democrat John Bel Edwards at 40% of the vote and Republican David Vitter at 23%. As no candidate won a majority of the vote, a runoff election between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 21, 2015.[12] Edwards won the runoff election with 56.1% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since 2008.

Three Republicans ran for the office: Public Service Commissioner and former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana Scott Angelle,[13][14] incumbent Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne[15] and U.S. Senator David Vitter.[16] Potential Republican candidates included former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. Representative Rodney Alexander,[17] Louisiana State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy,[18] State Senator Gerald Long[19] and former governor, former U.S. Representative and candidate for president in 2012 Buddy Roemer.[20]

Three Democrats ran: 2011 candidate Cary Deaton,[21] Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives John Bel Edwards[13][22] and minister Jeremy Odom.[23]

Louisiana jungle primary[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.89
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.00
Republican Scott Angelle 214,982 19.29
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,656 14.96
Democratic Cary Deaton 11,763 1.06
Democratic S. L. Simpson 7,420 0.67
Independent Beryl Billiot 5,694 0.51
Independent Jeremy Odom 4,756 0.43
Independent Eric Orgeron 2,248 0.20
Total votes 1,114,336 100.00
Louisiana general election[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.11 Increase27.95
Republican David Vitter 505,940 43.89 Decrease21.91
Total votes 1,152,864 100.00
Democratic gain from Republican

Mississippi

[edit]
2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election
← 2011 November 3, 2015 (2015-11-03) 2019 →
 
Nominee Phil Bryant Robert Gray
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 480,399 234,858
Percentage 66.2% 32.4%
County results
Bryant:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%
Gray:      40–50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%
Governor before election

Phil Bryant
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Bryant
Republican

Main article: 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

One-term incumbent Republican Governor Phil Bryant nominated for a second and final term.[6][26] He had won a resounding victory over his Democratic opponent four years earlier, carrying 61% of the vote. Truck driver Robert Gray was nominated by the Democrats to oppose Bryant in the general election.[26] Bryant won the election in a landslide, winning 67% of the vote to Gray's 32%.

Mississippi Republican primary[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Bryant (incumbent) 256,689 91.86
Republican Mitch Young 22,738 8.14
Total votes 279,427 100.00
Mississippi Democratic primary[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Robert Gray 152,087 50.80
Democratic Vicki Slater 91,104 30.43
Democratic Valerie Short 56,177 18.77
Total votes 299,368 100.00
Mississippi general election[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Phil Bryant (incumbent) 480,399 66.24
Democratic Robert Gray 234,858 32.38
Reform Shawn O'Hara 9,950 1.37 n/a
Total votes 725,207 100.00
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ Alaska's governorship was held by an independent, so the number of seats held by Democrats and Republicans added up to only 49.

References

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  1. ^ Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
  2. ^ "2015/2016 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  3. ^ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Roll Call. Retrieved January 13, 2015.
  4. ^ "2016 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. UVA Center for Politics. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
  5. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  6. ^ a b AP (January 20, 2015). "Gov. Bryant outlines priorities in State of the State". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
  7. ^ Ryan Alessi (May 5, 2014). "Jack Conway set to announce 2015 ticket for governor with Rep. Sannie Overly". Mycn2.com. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  8. ^ Bruggeman, Karyn (January 27, 2015). "Matt Bevin to Make Shock Run for Kentucky Governor". National Journal. Retrieved January 27, 2015.
  9. ^ Youngman, Sam. "Drew Curtis will join debate on Kentucky Sports Radio, but other fall debates look iffy". Kentucky.com. Retrieved September 29, 2015.
  10. ^ a b "Results" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. 2015. Retrieved 2019-11-05.
  11. ^ Alan Blinder (4 November 2015). "Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor's Race in Kentucky - The New York Times". The New York Times. Retrieved 2019-11-06.
  12. ^ Deslatte, Melinda (25 October 2015). "Republican David Vitter reaches Louisiana governor's runoff against Democrat John Bel Edwards". U.S. News & World Report. AP. Retrieved 26 October 2015.
  13. ^ a b Alford, Jeremy (May 6, 2013). "Saved by the Bel?". Gambit. Archived from the original on February 3, 2014. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  14. ^ Avery, Cole (October 2, 2014). "Scott Angelle to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on October 5, 2014. Retrieved October 2, 2014.
  15. ^ Adelson, Jeff (March 20, 2013). "Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne 'intends' to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on March 25, 2013. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  16. ^ "David Vitter Announces Run for Governor". Roll Call. January 21, 2014. Archived from the original on January 22, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
  17. ^ "Alexander says he may run for Louisiana governor in 2015". The Town Talk. August 13, 2013. Archived from the original on August 15, 2013. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
  18. ^ "Louisiana poll: Vitter edges Georges, Jindal's popularity, jobs and economy tops". Bayoubuzz.com. June 20, 2012. Retrieved February 5, 2013.
  19. ^ "Long weighs bid for governor in 2015". The Advocate. August 11, 2012. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
  20. ^ Greater New Orleans (December 12, 2013). "Buddy Roemer to spearhead long-term policy initiative ahead of 2015 election". NOLA.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  21. ^ WWLTV.com (July 26, 2013). "Edwards running to correct what he calls Jindal's mistakes | wwltv.com New Orleans". Wwltv.com. Archived from the original on October 19, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  22. ^ Adelson, Jeff (February 10, 2013). "John Bel Edwards announces he is running for governor in 2015". The New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on April 11, 2013. Retrieved February 21, 2013.
  23. ^ "Natchitoches minister makes run for governor". KNOE.com. March 4, 2014. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  24. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  25. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  26. ^ a b Pettus, Emily Wagster (August 5, 2015). "Truck Driver Wins Dem Nomination for Mississippi Governor". ABC News. AP.
  27. ^ "2015 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 25, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  28. ^ "2015 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  29. ^ "2015 General Election". Archived from the original on 2021-02-25. Retrieved 2021-01-29.
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